| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Carl_Johnson Carl Johnson
#player2 Jackson Jackson
#description https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8XX9Anaeho
>Carl_Johnson: ?ADEIKO 8F OKA +14 14
#note I pigged out on nachos after choking against Josh, and regretted it immediately. Now I have to play on the top board again, and I feel like an incontinent chowhound: there is the credible chance I poo my pants on the livestream! Not sure to what degree this affected my game, but here, the right play is OIK 8G. Definitely the kind of rack you'd rather have going second. (-3)
>Jackson: AABEGIY 9F YAGI +25 25
#note C: Worse, Joey K had offered odds that I poo my pants on the livestream, and I had taken the "under" and didn't want to lose all my precious $$$!
>Carl_Johnson: ?DEEHII 7H HIE +14 28
#note I had briefly considered taking the "over" and then willfully pooping all over Table 1 so I could win $$$. Fortunately, my better angels prevailed.
>Jackson: ABENSTV 6I AB +22 47
#note J: could do VESTA or SAB as well here, and considered VET strongly as well. VESTA wins a sim, which is largely because it prevents 6 tile plays at 8J. I think VESTA, VET, AB are all fairly reasonable, but might lean towards the more bingo heavy options since I think his range was fairly good after HIE, so I would like to respond likewise.
C: Actually, neither of them prevailed. GI Joel appeared on my right shoulder: "Run to the restroom, Carl. It's more sportsmanlike, and it isn't far; you can make it if you hurry." Then the ghost of Stu Goldman appeared on my left shoulder: "There's no time, lad! It can't be stopped; share it now for all the world to behold! No need to keep things bottled up. Push push push! You have to keep pushing, my boy, and leave the rest to the janitors!"
>Carl_Johnson: ?ADDEHI K7 DIEHArD +80 108
#note "Enough! Both of you!" I cried, to the general confusion of the livestream. And summoning all the willpower within me, I held the line and the episode passed. In a particularly surreal turn, I apparently transferred the problem to Jackson, who had to run to the loo halfway through the game himself.
>Jackson: EINSSTV 14E INVESTS +76 123
>Carl_Johnson: EEFIIRT 15H FIE +37 145
#note It testifies to just how exhausted I am that I don't immediately see this.
>Jackson: GOPSTWZ 10J W.OP +20 143
#note lots of mediocre options here, WHOP, GROW, GAWP, and TIZ. TIZ sims the best here, largely to block the 8J spot, and the leave is not so much worse than WHOP's leave since the O at least defends against disaster racks. Still I think the value of the Z is pretty good here with 15a open, so it's close.
>Carl_Johnson: EINRTUY M10 .UNY +18 163
#note I spent a long time here too, but this is genuinely a tough rack. I thought of all the plays mentioned on the stream except TYPIER M8: OY L10, YUP M8, RYU 12K. After 5,000 iterations, PUNY and TYPIER were tied for the best play.
>Jackson: ?DFGSTZ 8J G.FTeD +48 191
#note J: I was aware of his range after PUNY which made me like plays like GIFT or TIZ a bit more here, but GIFTED is way better with no range, and with reasonable ranges he could have it's close to a wash, and on this board his range is wider than average, so I think this play was fine
C: People gave Jackson crap about this play, but it's totally fine, and it even wins a 4-ply sim. He's scoring well, uncluttering his rack, and saving a big play for row 15 for next turn. I don't think I would have had the guts.
>Carl_Johnson: CEIIMRT O8 .IMETRIC +92 255
>Jackson: AEORSSZ 15A ZEROS +47 238
#note ZOEAS and ZEROS basically tied in the sim. ZEROS was nice to make better lanes for myself down there, not a bad thing at this score. However, I did not see ZOEAS unfortunately cause I likely woul dhave played it to keep the R for the important RAI spot, which Q does not see the full value of. I think ZEROS is slightly but clearly worse than ZOEAS (the advantage of ZEROS is that I average more next turn with the A on this board, the A being useful for overlaps scoring etc)
>Carl_Johnson: BCRRTUU 13B CURB +21 276
#note Them duplicates again. Wait til you see what happens next game.
>Jackson: AAELLST N11 TEAL +24 262
#note not really worth doing AL now, though there are marginal lanes to hit, especially column N. pretty close
>Carl_Johnson: DOOPRTU 5E ODOUR +15 291
#note This was a tough rack! OUTRODE/DROPOUT/UPROOT/OUTPORT all give back a lot for Jackson to work with. I also liked how ODOUR deals with the bingo lane on Row 5 that otherwise would probably remain there until someone bingoed. Also, I foresaw that a parallel play on Row 6 next turn would do well to close the board. That said, ODOUR doesn't do especially well in the sim. I'm not up by enough to where closing down lanes is that important. The sim-winners here are PUD I13 (which I saw) and PUBIS E11 (which I didn't). I also missed the O hook on BIS for OUTDO 12E. (-5)
>Jackson: AGJLNOS N6 JO. +25 287
#note did not see SAJOU here, which is a pretty good play. Spending the case S isn''t great, but the pool is slightly vowel heavy and works pretty well with GLN. I liked JOE because the G really helps the leave here, AGLNS is quite strong and will only get stronger with more vowels over the following turns. I could do JO 4E as well to keep M and N open, and it doesn't really obstruct the 4/6 rows too much. It does let him score a bit more immediately though Close call in the sim between sajou, joe, and jo.
>Carl_Johnson: ANNOPTT O2 PANTO +17 308
#note More duplicates. PANTO 4B wins the sim, but I think that can't be right. It forks the board, and Jackson will probably hit his bingo before I do. (-2?)
>Jackson: AEEGLNS G8 ..E +7 294
#note not CEE for 3 more cause I want him to block this for small then hit the 4/6 row, which is quite good for my leave - I hit 8/21, AIMTUW, plus the R for only row 11.
>Carl_Johnson: EIINNTX 12E IN +8 316
#note You can't trust the sim here at all. Jackson clearly has amazing tiles, and IN takes out ttwo of the biggest lanes for him. Also, bingos on Rows 4 or 6 will often give me back something nice with the X. (-11?)
>Jackson: AEEGLNS 4D GLEN +17 311
#note Really tough turn here. CEE is not a bad play, forcing him to block but he can't sacrifice too much to block for fears of getting outrun. I can just bingo a quarter or so of the time and win often. It also avoids the Q. ALE is a play I considerd a lot, at 4D, which forks the board, opening column C and row 3. I was worried IN might have kept a good bingo leave, and then felt that he would be favoured if we traded bingoes, so went for an outrunning play, hoping to grab some scoring tiles and win like that, just have to avoid the Q. I liked keeping the A for D12, but I could do something like EGAL 4D to be more standard, but the R hook is a bit more dangerous if I think he is holding good tiles.
>Carl_Johnson: EILNOTX 6C LEX +20 336
#note I was very happy to see this; both Fs and Ps are gone for FLEX/PLEX, and I hold the case I. It was only after I played this that I realized that Jackson can hook ILEX with the S that he clearly has. Still, it's a lane he can't do much about, and I might hit a bingo there.
>Jackson: AAEERSV D11 VA. +18 329
#note This seems like the right idea, leaving 2 in the bag and giving me the best timing for the endgame. I considered AVA/AG as well to go for bingoes, which is reasonable ss well. However, looking at endgames after VAR then QI, VAR actually does quite poorly against QI if he plays it with LI. I can win with a few draws, but lose narrowly with the vast majority. If QI is on his rack, he is almos tcertainly playing that, or something better. If the Q is in the bag, I lose half the time when I draw it, and it's complicated if I leave it in the bag. Maybe something more aggressive is warranted in this case, AVA. (E)AVE is also a cool idea to force him to play with ILEX. If I realize how devastating QI/LI is, EAVE forces him to make plays with ILEX, which give me SILEX in return. Of course if he has QU I am probably dead to QU(A) plays anyway, but EAVE might be a cool idea.
>Carl_Johnson: ILNOQRT 7B QI +15 351
#note I'm stunned; even when I give Jackson an S, QI B5 still wins the sim by a light year- 72.5% win chances vs just 32.5% for my placement. Part of it is that I'm emptying the bag and keeping a poor leave. But I really can't imagine this play is that bad. (-40% win chances? Seriously? How surreal is that? I mean, really, I'm sacrificing 11 points, and SILEX is 12 points just by itself, not even considering what Jackson will do on Column A, which will always give him an out-in-two, so... why, Quackle? Why do you do this to me??)
>Jackson: AAEEMRS 2K REMA. +18 347
#note no wins, SARAN is the best endgame. Nothing really threatens wins with fuckups, even.
>Carl_Johnson: LNORTUW 1L WOT +25 376
#note For what it's worth, given Jackson's exact rack, QI B5 does still win for me, and his only possible bingo is SEAWARE. Maybe I should have gone for it.
>Jackson: AES 13J A. +6 353
>Carl_Johnson: LNRU B11 UN.L. +14 390
>Jackson: ES 3L ES +20 373
>Jackson: (R) +2 375 |
