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#character-encoding UTF-8
#player1 QUACK QUACK
#player2 New_Player_1 New Player 1
>QUACK: ADILU 8D DULIA +16 16
>New_Player_1: EORRTTW 9G TROW +14 14
>QUACK: ABDNOSU 7F ABOUNDS +77 93
>New_Player_1: EGILNRT L7 .TERLING +70 84
>QUACK: CEIO 14J CO.IE +28 121
>New_Player_1: AAADKNP 13K K.AP +34 118
>QUACK: AAEEIST 15N AE +11 132
>New_Player_1: AADNOOW 10B WANDOO +26 144
>QUACK: AJ 9C JA +38 170
>New_Player_1: AAEESVX 10L .AX +26 170
#note -15 against a normal rack.
I wrote a long analysis which has disappeared here, but in essence we don't block.
Vs RATES, AITES, SATIRE, INTERS; AXE wins every sim.
With QQ 11B on the board, it's VERY close. RAX starts to do very well. QQ blocks bingos and reduces his score, so that's where he's making back a lot of points.
Vs his actual rack of RUTILES my move doesn't do great.
Summary; In a situation where there's essentially one bingo line and we have a move 15 points better than the next we never sacrifice that much equity, almost ever. In late game it's justifiable, or if it permanently seals off the board then maybe.
The other consideration is if we'll get into some cat n mouse game, will that work out for the person with the worse rack. Well, I would guess no, as we have the worse rack so we're behind, right? Then following that, he's ahead in this given scenario anyway, so gambling is wise. So is the idea of the cat and mouse scenario that we catch up to him in rack development? yes I guess it is. I just don't see how we can outperform our opponent while holding a worse rack though, ultimately he always has the edge. So I think this was an interesting try but is very much the wrong play.
If I Wanted to take this further I could test out various carmouse scenarios, but I don't know if I feel there is that much to learn? He can just underlap stuff (or play TELLIN, like he did, keeping TS - or JARUL keeping IEST), and the situation is still much better for him because TS > EAVES and he scored a bunch of points anyway - and I can't afford to play anything that opens the board, and because I have a worse rack, I'm more restricted than usual.
It's instructive anyway and I'm glad I tried it out in a place where I was lucky enough that it was "best".
>QUACK: LRU C9 ..RUL +24 194
>New_Player_1: AEENSTV E10 .EV +14 184
#note actually, I didn't consider VADE at all. VAUTE and VERSE I did, but I felt the situation compelled DEV. I looked over at Ed and Naweens game, and saw Ed was winning handsomely, 50-100 ahead with a blank in hand. I felt I needed to win by a lot of points; so I took this option over DEVA, which I wanted to play. VEST is also a fun option (however, anand tells me this blocked lutenist).
>QUACK: EILNT 11J TE.LIN +23 217
>New_Player_1: AEFMNST 6D FEM +25 209
#note FASTEN and FEM are close; at this point I don't want to play a blockout so I did FEM and prayed. Oh well.
>QUACK: ?EISTUV 14A TUSsIVE +97 314
>New_Player_1: ANPQSTT A12 QA.S +69 278
>QUACK: EHI 15G HIE +23 337
>New_Player_1: CNOPRTT 5B TROP +25 303
>QUACK: IMR 13G MIR +20 357
>New_Player_1: CFHIINT 8L .IFT +21 324
>QUACK: EOOZ 4D OOZE +43 400
>New_Player_1: ACGHINY B1 YACH.ING +88 412
>QUACK: ?BDEENR 3G BlENDER +83 483
>QUACK: (EGSY) +16 499
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