| Player 1 |
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#player1 Carl_Johnson Carl Johnson
#player2 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
>Carl_Johnson: AANNOOY 8H ANNOY +24 24
>Joshua_Sokol: DEGOORW L4 WOOD. +24 24
>Carl_Johnson: ABEEORU 9G BEAU +17 41
#note BEAU wins the sim barely but EAU is also worth considering, setting up the B in two spots.
>Joshua_Sokol: EEGNRTZ K3 ZEN +33 57
#note missing 10J NERTZ #findingsmall
>Carl_Johnson: AEILORV 10A VARIOLE +68 109
>Joshua_Sokol: AAEGORT C8 AR.OGATE +70 127
>Carl_Johnson: GIIKLLW 11E KILL +35 144
#note There are very few viable options with these letters. It's either KILL/WIG/WILL 11E, or 15A LWEI. Below that, there's a chasm of about 10 points valuation.
>Joshua_Sokol: CDEEEIT A8 DE.ICE +45 172
#note missing E(V)ICTED *and* E(V)ICTEE #findingmedium
>Carl_Johnson: GILMNWY 15B M.WLING +51 195
#note Josh noted this as a major inflection point because he should have done EVICTED A9 instead of DEVICE. But I was in good shape either way with WINGY D4.
>Joshua_Sokol: ?EEIPTT D2 pIPETTE +71 243
>Carl_Johnson: ORSTUVY 5C V.RY +20 215
#note VOYEUR 5A is the play here. (-9) #visionlarge
>Joshua_Sokol: AEIORTU B2 URAEI +25 268
#note there are reasons relating to precise move fishing that I think AUREI is a better move here. It immediately gives more back, but there is a slight difference in standard deviation which indicates that higher-scoring plays fit there, plays that can be fished for, such as EXAM or EXAMS. I realized this during the game, but figured Carl would be more focused on building into a bingo than into a play like this. +1.1 but in my opinion this is a #tacticssmall
>Carl_Johnson: ?OQSSTU F14 Q. +31 246
#note C: I thought about burning the blank with QUA 14F, and indeed it wins the sim. The blank is usually worth 30-35 points, but here it's a little bit less since I'm relatively close to a bingo even without it. (-4.5) #leaveevaluationmedium
J: He said he considered QUaSS 14F. He probably also considered QUa in the same spot but knowing his style he would not play this since it gives back an immediately lucrative bingo spot for me. Another really interesting play is 14A SO(T), keeping the deadly QU? combination for 14F. It really doesn't appear to be a play keeping the Q, so unless I had a play in that spot, Carl would be likely to be able to play there next turn, perhaps even draw an A or an I to be able to retain his blank. I really like that play, but QUa's numbers are crushing according to quackle. 38-point average score after 66 instead of 66 average score after 31 (assuming Carl finds all of his blank bingos, which is a likely scenario).
Considering the option of recurringly keeping the Q, I think SO(T) would be the play here. #tacticssmall
>Joshua_Sokol: ADNOPTT 12H ADOPT +21 289
#note 12E APT would be nice but it just leaves a lane on 13G that I can't hope to be able to deal with appropriately much of the time.
>Carl_Johnson: ?EOSSTU 3A T.O.lUSES +70 316
#note C: I had seen the 9 before Josh played ADOPT, but then spent way too long trying to find a decent bingo on Column M. There aren't really any that don't allow comeback plays on column N. I saw that TROILUSES was vulnerable to X plays, but if he didn't draw one after ADOPT, I like my chances. The sim winner here is OUtSETS M9, but I'm skeptical. (-4?) #strategymedium
J: can you find the other 9-letter word in this position?
This was a great find, and I definitely felt tilted given that AUREI would not have given Carl this play. It was one of the rare occasions that I was on tilt at Nationals, and it's stupid, since he has many other spots to play bingos here, they're just slightly worse.
>Joshua_Sokol: AACENNT 2F NAN +13 302
#note I did not think I could afford to make a waiting/middling play in this position that didn't accomplish anything significant. The pool is such that Carl could only have the last O to be able to adequately deal with the threat this opened up, and it's obviously far less than a 50% chance he has it. It's also possible he has total junk given the few vowels that remain, so I decided I had to go for this, since the upside was so high. Quackle flipflops in preference between my play and 12C (G)NAT, which doesn't address the H1 hotspot or the 2F hotspot. I have to disagree, since Carl will likely outplay Quackle's static evaluator following my (G)NAT move, such that he will be able to give himself a better shot at drawing the tiles he needs to draw nearing the endgame.
>Carl_Johnson: BDGHIOU 1G BOUGH +47 363
#note C: Of course I have it.
J: Nevertheless, this was obviously a possibility that was bound to occur around 1/3 times, and I was not prepared to withstand this, nor could I in reality. I was very upset at this, especially since my number one rule of thumb in Scrabble is seriously "your opponent always has an O, don't assume they do not"
>Joshua_Sokol: ACEHIIT 6L .TIC +8 310
#note this pre-endgame was extremely complex. I didn't know if I could potentially outrun Carl with something like ITE(M) B12 or 13G CHAI (which I think I missed actually). There are only 2 vowels out of 12, and BOUGH might have left two consonants. I'm now in grave danger of losing.
Quackle thinks Carl will hand me the game if I play (Q)I, which is just not happening. I don't think that play can ever win, especially since it allows Carl to draw vowels from a vowel-less rack way too often. I am open to suggestions as to what to do here, but I felt like I needed to create more threats. I can actually only hit AIRSHED on row 14, which is a disappointing development, but Carl doesn't know that and might actually play JI(N) G13 worrying about that. Good thing about AIRSHED is that it is unblockable, since it plays at M8 and with RACHIDES, as well as DEHAIRS 13H and SHADIER G13. It also requires drawing RS, which are two of the three remaining duplicated tiles, which increases my chances of getting them. I can draw into MESSIAH at M8 as well, but that's also quite unlikely.
I can't hit anything under ADOPT that hasn't already been mentioned, and row 10 is also impossible. The C I'm putting out there is obviously my best friend, and it's very difficult to deal with if Carl has no vowels, so that's what I was hoping for, I guess. There might be something better.
For example I could hit something like EXHEDRA at M1, though CIIT are unplayable. I could play off ITCH for FREESIA M1, and that's it. I don't think that's viable. It's probably better to go for row 10 (ESCHARS, ESCHEAT, STEARIC, etc.). Maybe (T)ITI L12 hits the most bingos as well as thretening scoring plays, though Carl wins outright if he has J(I)FFS or F(I)XED.
>Carl_Johnson: DFIMRSS N5 F.RMS +10 373
#note Championship Player comes up with FIRS M9, but my play sims better, taking out some of Josh's options on Row O, while protecting me against a consonant heavy draw. Such a draw seemed substantially more likely than chance; Josh probably didn't keep 4 consonants after OTIC. However, I spent so long on TROILUSES and FIRMS that now I'm in time trouble.
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEHIRX O8 AHI +35 345
#note time ticking down, tough endgame, but it's lost. The best I have is K10 EX(P)IRE or just AH O8. I was trying to force an error and also running out of time, but it could come at a cost. -30 #endgamelarge
>Carl_Johnson: DFIJS G13 JI. +29 402
#note C: This was an echo of the MUL(ATT)O/MO(G)UL position against Kevin Fraley at California Open 2018. JEW 4J is way better because FIDS M1 is unblockable. And I even saw it too! But I worried that I had mistracked and thought that Josh might play out and win if I was wrong. After JEW I'd be up 41 points but he'd get 16 from me, and his tiles look like they could score 25 points if there's a spot for them. With more time, I would have retracked the game to be dead certain that Josh can't play out, because that being the case, JEW/FIDS is best by a large margin. (-29) #endgamelarge #trackinglarge #timemanagementmedium
J: 4J J(EW) is his play, but he was worried he had mistracked or I had something he missed. -29, so I'm back to 1 point behind optimal
>Joshua_Sokol: EERX 13I EX +23 368
#note -4 to K8 (O)X #endgamesmall #findingsmall
>Carl_Johnson: DFS 4J F.. +9 411
#note I saw enough that FOX allowed REP, but didn't see that he had REM B13 as well. Being in time trouble isn't quite as bad as it seems, though still very costly. I spent most of the time on FIRMS, making sure that it was a solid option. -1 #endgamesmall #timemanagementmedium
>Joshua_Sokol: ER B13 RE. +17 385
#note don't miss something like E(V)ICTED, don't suffer like me.
>Joshua_Sokol: (DS) +6 391 |
