| Player 1 |
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#player1 Carl Carl Johnson
#player2 Will Will Anderson
#title 2019 NSC Round 28
#description https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euNzvlzAKTk
>Carl: EEGQTUY 8F QUEY +32 32
#note This was the last game of Day 4 and received a lot of attention at the time. As of this game, my record against Will is currently 0-4.
>Will: AAEILNU F8 .UAI +15 15
#note W: Took a couple minutes on this. QUEY suggests maybe higher likelihood of another E, so AQUA seems ill-advised. I also retain an L for QUAIL after QUAI.
C: #note For those of you playing Annotated Game Yahtzee, this gets you the 'two consecutive misspellings of QUAY' award, plus the 'cray-cray' award if you're playing Annotated Slang With a Speech Impediment Yahtzee.
>Carl: EGSTTUU E11 GUT +14 46
>Will: AEGLNNP 12E .LPAN +22 37
#note Took another decent think on this one; considered all of the top options. Sim likes G7 PUN or 12D GULP nearly exactly as much as ULPAN, which splits the difference between those two in both score and bingo%. I was hoping that if I drew an -ING bingo it might be likelier to go down after ULPAN.
>Carl: CEFGSTU H11 F.CET +30 76
#note The right play here is to just go for it with FUG 11H. If I had done that, I might have won this game. (-4) #strategysmall
>Will: AEEGLNO 15B ELONGA.E +60 97
>Carl: EGSUWYZ 14B YEW +35 111
#note This sims slightly better than SEZ J8, keeping garbage.
>Will: ADENNOW 9F .NWON +24 121
#note This far into the game, Carl's played 4 tiles or fewer every turn, including the especially ominous GUT - I felt I was losing a race to bingo with QUEYS here, and had to address it now while I had a strong defensive play to make there.
>Carl: GIOSSUZ 11H .UGIO +20 131
#note Sid pointed out SNUG J8, which sims even with FUGIO, but is probably a little bit better. Quackle always underrates defensive moves like that. Another option, which I didn't see, is OUZEL C11. OUZEL wins the sim, but I like SNUG best. (-1) #visionsmall
>Will: AADEILP 12L PAID +26 147
#note After FUGIO I'm now quite confident Carl has an S; I played PAID because it blocks FUGIOS and the D in the triple lane doesn't combine that well with the S I'm putting him on. Quackle suggests B13 AYE might be a good idea; it does bingo a ton, and all of the things I can draw play on column A afterwards. Inferring an S, PAID still sims better.
>Carl: AEEISSZ O12 .AZE +42 173
#note The commentators liked my play alright, but SIZED O8 wins the sim. For just three points, it seemed worthwhile to reduce bingo lanes. As it turned out, he would have bingoed after SIZED. (-7?)
>Will: ACDELRS 13A LAC +26 173
#note Well, every now and then if you're hoping to win Nationals and don't want to put in the time to study the 9s, as I don't, you're gonna get burned by missing something amazing - H1 LEADSCREW. Maybe someday.
>Carl: EIMOOSS J8 S.O. +24 197
#note With both blanks out, Quackle plays OSMOSE 10J, but the two plays sim about even.
>Will: DEERRRS 14M RE. +24 197
#note Staying close, biding my time
>Carl: EFIMOOS 10L MOFO +24 221
>Will: DEHRRST O7 THR. +21 218
#note Continuing to bide my time...THRO creates a nice lane for something ending in -ES, so I preferred it to RHO. HERD is also reasonable, but if Carl doesn't play parallel to THRO I'll get many more bingos down than I will after HERD.
>Carl: AEIRSSV N6 VIA +21 242
#note The commentators liked this play, and I was disappointed by how badly this sims relative to REVISAL/SERVAL/VERSAL. I suppose turnover is important with both blanks unseen, but I figured Will probably had one by now. Also, I acknowledge that VIS is better than VIA, except that Will would know that I have another S. (-16) #strategylarge
>Will: BDEIRST M7 BRI. +24 242
#note After BRIO, the score will be tied for the third time.
>Carl: BDERSST 14G D.BT +16 258
#note DEBS > DEBT. -3 #strategysmall
>Will: ADDENST A8 DENTA. +24 266
#note SENDAL is actually a great idea here that I didn't consider, though I think I slightly still prefer DENTAL; the logic of SENDAL is simply that I get the same points and tile picks towards the blanks, but I prevent many of Carl's bingos from going down by placing the S out in space instead of the D...might be worth doing given the huge number of turns he's had to get his rack into bingo shape.
>Carl: EEIORSS B3 SOIREES +64 322
>Will: ?DIJNRS 4A J.INDeRS +98 364
>Carl: ?AIMORX F4 .X +8 330
#note Quackle says that EX wins 12.5% and DEX 8A wins 62.5%. That's actually not true. In fact, EX always loses, and DEX wins only 25% of the time, when I draw the E. This is because Will is forced to block both bingos with SEV, and I'll outrun him with RIOJA. I thought it would be more difficult for WIll to block both Column D and Row H, but in fact it's quite easy. EKE/OKE does the trick; No matter what I draw, I'll never have a bingo hooking ER at G2. (-20) #preendgamelarge
>Will: EEHIKLT 3B .LEEK +40 404
#note Unfortunately, though I was lamenting the fact that SHEIK wouldn't play because KE* isn't a word, I forgot about it once Carl played EX. I burned the rest of my time checking and double-checking AIMORV? for bingos and just assuring myself that AVIFORM# was Collins and OVIFORM TWL; when finally it came time to make a move, I made a huge mistake with SLEEK, which leaves only one out, compared to SHEIK, which scores 12 more and goes out in two. SLEEK is a whopping -35. #endgamelarge
>Carl: ?AIMORV H1 VIM. +27 357
#note Will knew that AVIfORM# is Collins-only. He also determined that OMNIVoRA D2 is my only bingo. He saw SHEIK a little too late, but this play does the trick. It's good to know that even the best players make endgame mistakes occasionally. It's possible that time trouble factored into it since this was a pretty tight game.
>Will: HIT H6 TH.. +10 414
#note Need to block FEDORA, this is another #endgamelarge. Luckily I was up enough to afford to bungle it completely and not lose.
>Carl: ?AOR E2 f..ORA +30 387
#note Interestingly, although the commentary/chat was much harder on me for my obvious mistakes in Round 25 vs. Josh, Quackle thinks I actually played slightly better in that game than I did here. Then again, you could argue that the duck's suggestions like REVISAL are too optimistic. Will probably has a blank in that spot. On the other hand, EX vs. DEX is a 25% chance swing, which is huge! It's a great example of how media can color our perceptions of events. I was the same flawed player in both games, but came off like an idiot in the one game and a hero in the other. In any event, this was a really exciting game, and I'm glad to have put on a good show.
>Carl: (I) +2 389 |
